Exploring Climate Variability
Exploring Climate Variability
Physical Models, Statistical Inference and Stochastic Dynamics
February 2013 - March 2013
In this Cooperation Group, we join forces from three different disciplines in order to address issues related to physical models of climate obtained from the Earth's astronomical cycles and palaeo-climatic data, and their statistical and stochastic analysis.
Because of the long time scales on which climate varies, the phenomena to be modeled and understood to a large part refer to palaeo-climate. The fluctuations of the earth's global average temperature over the past hundreds of thousands to million years call for an understanding of the interaction of weak periodic driving forces and their stochastic perturbations, as well as of the (parametric) causes of dramatic dynamical transitions. The background knowledge is physics based climatology.
Since knowledge of past climate is intricately encoded in data series stemming from, e.g., ice cores or sediments, statistical aspects of data analysis are essential in order to understand and improve the accuracy of input data. Also the extraction of model parameters and model validation is a challenging statistical task.
Finally, the appropriate models will be stochastic. Hence, the mathematical tools of prob- ability and stochastic processes and their dynamics are indispensable for the analytical under- standing and handling of models obtained.
Our project therefore aims at a joint effort of three disciplines: non-linear physics of complex interacting systems, statistical inference and time series analysis, and of stochastic analysis and random dynamical systems. The main goal is to improve physical models, e.g., by using non-Gaussian noise processes, to calibrate and validate models by adequate and partially new statistical methods, and to understand and explore these models from the mathematical point of view.
Please direct any inquiries about the scientific program of the Cooperation Group to Prof. Dr. Ilya Pavlyukevich (ilya.pavlyukevich@uni-jena.de).
Members
- Convenors
- Minicourse Speakers
Henk A. Dijkstra (Utrecht, NED)
Understanding climate variability using a hierarchy of models (February 18 - 22, 2013)
Martin Hairer (Warwick, GBR)Singular stochastic PDEs and renormalisation (March 4 - 7, 2013)
Hans Rudolf Künsch (Zurich, SUI)Statistical methods for climate data and climate model output (March 4 - 7, 2013)
Klaus Fraedrich (Hamburg, GER)Flexible modelling of planetary climates (March 19, 2013)
Valerio Lucarini (Hamburg, GER)Flexible modelling of planetary climates (March 19, 2013)
- Fellows
Ludwig Arnold (Bremen, GER)
Peter Ashwin (Exeter, GBR)
Sigurd Assing (Warwick, GBR)
Björn Birnir (California, USA)
Björn Böttcher (Dresden, GER)
Hartmut Borth (Hamburg, GER)
Alexei Chechkin (Dresden, GER)
Michel Crucifix (Louvain, FRA)
Peter Ditlevsen (Copenhagen, DEN)
Stamen Dolaptchiev (Frankfurt, GER)
Ilya Ermakov (Louvain, BEL)
Ulrike Feudel (Oldenburg, GER)
Franco Flandoli (Pisa, ITA)
Jan Martin Gairing (Berlin, GER)
Sucharita Ghosh (Zürich, SUI)
Tilmann Gneiting (Heidelberg, GER)
Samuel Herrmann (Dijon, FRA)
Astrid Hilbert (Växjö, SWE)
Michael Högele (Potsdam, GER)
Marc Höll (Dresden, GER)
Reinhard Höpfner (Mainz, GER)
Nicolas Iro (Hamburg, GER)
Edilbert Kirk (Hamburg, GER)
Peter Kloeden (Frankfurt, GER)
Kai Kümmel (Jena, GER)
Jürgen Kurths (Potsdam, GER)
Damien Landon (Dijon, FRA)
Nishanth Lingala (Illinois, USA)
Gerrit Lohmann (Bremen, GER)
Frank Lunkeit (Hamburg, GER)
Bo Madsen (Kopenhagen, DEN)
Adam H. Monahan (Victoria, USA)
N. Sri Namachchivaya (Illinois, USA)
André Oliveira Gomes (Berlin, GER)
Salvatore Pascale (Hamburg, GER)
Cecile Penland (Boulder, USA)
Paulo Henrique Pereira da Costa (Berlin, GER)
Nicolas Perkowski (Berlin, GER)
Goran Peskir (Manchester, GBR)
Markus Reiss (Berlin, GER)
Markus Riedle (London, GBR)
Michael Röckner (Bielefeld, GER)
Paulo Ruffino (Campinas, BRA)
Rene L. Schilling (Dresden, GER)
Björn Schmalfuss (Jena, GER)
Jan Sieber (Portsmouth, GBR)
Stefan Siegert (Dresden, GER)
Johannes Sutter (Bremen, GER)
William Thompson (New York, USA)
Alison Van der Laan Melo (Campinas, BRA)
Jan Viebahn (Utrecht, NED)
John Walsh (British Columbia, CAN)
Johannes Werner (Gießen, GER)
Hoong Chieh Yeong (Illinois, USA)
Jerzy Zabczyk (Warszawa, POL)